Bihar’s electoral history reveals a compelling pattern: voter turnout has often played a decisive role in shaping the political fortunes of the state’s two most influential leaders — Nitish Kumar of the JD(U) and Lalu Prasad Yadav of the RJD. With the first phase of the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections recording a historic 64.66% turnout, political analysts are revisiting these trends to understand what it may signal for the current poll outcome.
Historically, higher voter turnout in Bihar has frequently been interpreted as a sign of anti-incumbency, suggesting public eagerness for change. For example, when turnout rose significantly in the 2015 Assembly elections, the mandate favoured the Mahagathbandhan led by Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad, defeating the NDA. However, this pattern is not absolute. In some elections, high turnout has reflected strong pro-incumbency mobilisation — particularly where welfare schemes or leadership approval influenced voter enthusiasm.
On the other hand, lower voter turnout has sometimes indicated voter satisfaction with the status quo, indirectly supporting the ruling coalition. Nitish Kumar’s return to power in certain previous elections coincided with moderate turnout levels, suggesting that his governance-focused appeal was reassuring enough to prevent a surge of anti-incumbency voting.
The 2025 elections present a unique scenario. Both major alliances — the NDA, led by JD(U) and BJP, and the Mahagathbandhan, led by RJD and Congress — have claimed that the high turnout benefits them. The Mahagathbandhan argues that rising turnout reflects public desire for change, while the NDA asserts that it is the result of strong ground-level mobilisation and public support.
